Where We Are This Week
Iowa Caucuses, a pandemic of incompetence, the Cumberland Plateau, and how to know if the world is about to be at war.
“Forrest, how do you do it?” is a question that no one ever asks me. “How do you come up with new ideas for an intro every week? And great ones at that?” is a question no one should ever ask me.
Since I’ve piqued your interest, however, I’ll tell you my answer. “I don’t know. But I’m worried I’m running out.”
Thursday, I was driving around the South of Tennessee trying to come up with an introduction for this week’s post. The first few thoughts that came to mind, I realized in disappointment that I’d essentially already said those things. Around then, I came to the conclusion that I was a less interesting person than I had previously estimated. Has the well run dry?
It was then, to my right, that I saw the Cumberland Plateau. I’ve been to that mountain range during every phase of my life. I remember going to Savage Gulf with my family and my mom demanding that my dad move away from the cliff. I hiked there with my dad as a teenager countless times, took my wife to the Fiery Gizzard trail, and rode bikes there all through the last decade, but I’d never seen it from that side.
West of Winchester, I saw just how far the ridgeline runs parallel to the Alabama border. Of course, if I’d ever bothered to look at a map of that area, it would’ve come as no surprise; it’s not as if I was discovering a new geographical formation, but it surprised me nonetheless. It was the scale that struck me; the way it curled up in the distance, all green and brown from the winter.
This new vantage point allowed me to see something that - if not trite, then overly familiar - with a fresh impression. It was with this alternate angle that awe, once again, began to set in; a different kind of sacred geometry.
In that instant, I was reminded of another gift that has been bestowed upon us humans - the infinite ways in which we can experience the world around us. It doesn’t matter how many times an idea has been addressed, there’s always room for a new angle.
Let the Games Commence
Congratulations are in order, my friends. We’ve made it to another election year. There were times during the Trump and Biden presidencies that I was unsure it would happen, but as sure as the woodpecker on my Bradford pear shows up every morning, we’re sure to be spoiled for choice this November.
If the GOP debates have done anything over the last year, it’s eradicated any hope I may - or may not - have had ahead of 2024. No debate was held featuring either of the de facto nominees of the two major political parties. In fact, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump have managed to do much campaigning at all.
Joe Biden delivered a couple of speeches decrying white supremacy - the least controversial position any politician can take in America - and proceeded to stagger offstage. Donald Trump attended several UFC events, the latest of which he sat ringside as Trump’s #1 fanboy Colby Covington was soundly dispatched by the Welterweight World Champ, Leon Edwards. It was basically the sporting equivalent of my political wishlist.
The Iowa caucuses are set to be held on the 15th, the first in the nation, where Trump is expected to take a commanding lead in the GOP race. One week later, on the 23rd, New Hampshire will hold their primary. If Iowa presents the slightest opportunity for a Republican candidate to upset the former president, then New Hampshire offers the best chance for a reshuffling of the Democrat candidates. Because New Hampshire Democrats are hilariously spiteful, the current president will not be appearing on the ballot - let’s go, Dean Phillips! - but will be available via write-in.
It doesn’t really matter, though. Barring the miraculous, come November of this year, it will be Biden v. Trump round two. In spite of all of our supposed remonstrations, Americans are still falling over each other to elect one of these buffoons as our next president.
Let’s shift our gaze elsewhere for just a moment. The entire primary process is anti-democratic for a litany of reasons that we’ve discussed previously in this publication. But the most blatant of these is the order. Before ‘Super Tuesday’, a total of six states have already cast their ballots. By the time March 5th (this year’s Super Tuesday), some candidates will have gained momentum and others will have already dropped out.
The process disproportionately weighs the votes of South Carolina, Michigan, etc. over the states that come later. In Tennessee, we’re some of the lucky ones. If your primary is after Super Tuesday, then it’s probably not even worth showing up. It’s not a free-for-all where everyone has equal opportunity, it’s more like a wedding that serves dinner by the table and you don’t know the lucky couple that well.
So, while friends and family get first dibs on the best dinner rolls, the rest of us twiddle our thumbs in hopes that they haven’t run out of anything. I don’t even know the people I’m sitting with.
The Case of the Disappearing Defense Secretary
Do you want a job that allows you to disappear for a few days? Do you want a job that lets you come and go as you please while your number 2 is on vacation in Costa Rica? Do you want a job that should punish you for being so irresponsible but will refuse to do so?
If you answered in the affirmative to every question above, then, boy, do I have the job for you. Or I would have the job for you save for the employer’s adherence to the quality displayed in the last question.
Regardless, you might as well highlight, circle, and underline the United States Cabinet Position in the classifieds on your local paper. You all may remember when Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg went on a three-month paternity leave without telling anyone. I’m all for normalizing paternity leave across the board, but I do find it wise to mention it to your boss before you change into your pajama pants for an entire season of the year.
But you know, then Buttigieg did it, it wasn’t that big of a deal. It was notable for the fact that almost any half-discerning company in the United States would be aware if a highly-placed employee was taking a three-month leave of absence before the employee disembarked. We can forgive him, however. It’s the Department of Transportation after all; the domain of mega-buses and novelty steamboat rides. It’s not like it was the Secretary of Defense or anything.
I squandered the surprise by leading with the punchline, didn’t I? Yes, in fact, earlier this week it was discovered that United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was indisposed for a whole week unbeknownst to literally all of the US government. What was only a bit of a laugh when it concerned roads and bridges feels a little more scandalous when it pertains to tanks and missiles, doesn’t it?
Apparently, Austin was admitted to the hospital on January 1st for a complication resulting from a surgery that he had undergone in December. He was diagnosed with prostate cancer late last year - a diagnosis he withheld from literally the entire US government - underwent routine surgery, and then had to be readmitted to treat a urinary tract infection.
Austin’s doctor insists that the Secretary’s prognosis is ‘excellent’ which is great news for Austin, but that’s not what we’re here to discuss.
Presumably, there was a protocol devised for situations such as these that top brass had labored over when it was initially adopted that Austin ignored as stridently as I ignore my check engine light. Yet, there will be no recourse for the Secretary; just what amounts to a cursory ‘review’ of the employee handbook in a sheepish attempt for the Biden administration to save face.
For his part, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Austin’s office’s communication during this episode was ‘not optimal.’ You think? Someone show this old man how to send a text. When I was young, I was never that great at keeping my parents informed of my whereabouts. It wasn’t a skill I particularly honed once I was married either; bike rides and skate sessions always seemed to take longer or veer off of their intended course. Shame on me, right? Sure, but at least I wasn’t ever second in command of the world’s strongest military. You can chip a dog, why not a government official?
The escapade brings to mind the quintessential question of our times. Is there even a government to speak of?
Almost every conspiracy one can think of can be equally attributed to widespread, endemic incompetence as opposed to some supreme form of malevolence. No doubt that there are some backroom dealings and very powerful people who make a concerted effort to coerce reality into their designs but, my gosh, we ought not to give them any extra help!
If every tier of our society wasn’t so rife with mediocrity and inadequacy, maybe we’d actually stand a chance against the global cabal that’s running the world - should it exist. Incompetence is the greatest argument against the JFK assassination coverup, whether or not the US government has made contact with extraterrestrials, and if Elvis is still alive. Surely, some inept, loose-lipped middle manager somewhere would’ve spilled the beans already.
Your outlook on the whole enterprise changes when you realize the federal government is essentially the DMV with guns.
Fortunately, for Americans, however, America has no enemies whatsoever, and it’s unfathomable to consider the possibility that some bad actor out there might be orchestrating their next attack to coincide with the next top official’s routine colonoscopy.
pre-WWIII
Wouldn’t it be fun if you opened my newsletter and read “Everything’s Better!”?
Good news/bad news on that front: you just did read that phrase but it’s entirely untrue.
There are two major wars taking place right now - remember Ukraine and Russia? - and, despite virtually no effort to de-escalate either of them, the global situation is only being exacerbated by major powers.
Iran can’t leave well enough alone and keeps insisting that it should play a part in all senseless violence across the globe. From supplying Russia with attack drones to funding the Houthi pirates in Yemen, Iran is clearly agitating for a greater conflict to break out. On Thursday, sick of only operating through their proxies, the Iranian navy seized a US oil tanker off the coast of Oman.
As we discussed last week, the Houthis have rendered commercial shipping in the Red Sea virtually impossible as they continue to attack merchant and naval vessels alike. The seizure of the St. Nikolas is a worrying sign of escalation in the region. Additionally, in other US-related news, an American Special Operations drone strike in Baghdad last week killed a senior official of an Iran-linked group.
The group, Harakat al-Nujaba, is classified as a terrorist organization but the strike is a bit of dicey diplomacy as the group operates as a wing of the Iraqi military. The successful operation immediately drew criticism from the Iraqi government which called it an act of terrorism, an affront to its sovereignty, and demanded the withdrawal of all US troops from the region. Ah, yet another fruitful venture in nation-building.
Elsewhere, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel are mounting as the IDF killed two high-ranking officials of the Iranian-backed terror group - if you’re playing along, drink every time I use that phrase - in Southern Lebanon. Naturally, the pro-terror crowd isn’t too thrilled about the event and the current climate between the two nations is hinting at a new front to the war opening up.
In other glum news, the war in Ukraine shows little sign of relenting. Russia, with the aid of weapons distributed by the poor, misunderstood North Korea and enigmatic Iran, has increased its barrage of the former Soviet nation by attacking major cities like Odesa and Kyiv after Ukrainian forces sunk a Russian battleship - to which Putin obliged the response, “you sunk my battleship!” - off the coast of Crimea. As the war enters its third year next month, it only becomes more dangerous the more desperate either nation becomes.
And as a bonus, officials from the United States and Guyana met earlier this week and discussed strengthening their defense partnership as Venezuela continues to covet roughly two-thirds of its neighbor’s territory. In response to Venezuelan concern, Guyanese officials have rejected the idea that they have requested or are allowing the US to establish a military base in the South American country. Let’s be honest though, they already speak English, its neighbors are commies, and they’ve got oil. We’ll have ‘em saluting the ol’ stars and stripes in no time.
It’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that another worldwide war will break out but the increasing instability across the globe makes that threat all the more imminent.
Norm Macdonald, one of the best to ever do it, has a bit about Germany declaring war on the World twice in the 20th century. As hilarious as the joke is, that’s not at all how the First World War started. It began with disputes over Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slavic nationalism among the Balkan states, and Serbian territorial claims; hardly the stuff one would think would embroil the world into armed conflict, right?
It’s quicksand. One thing leads to another, one neighboring country pledges its allegiance, and so on and so forth. Before you knew it, young Americans were fighting alongside the French by the hundreds of thousands to drive German forces out of France. World War II was a little more immediate since the invasion of Poland reminded the rest of the world that the Germans were a real problem.
So, no, it won’t be sudden. But the dominoes are beginning to fall. We’re all frogs in a giant pot enjoying each other’s company until it’s boiling. Don’t panic just yet, but I think I see a few bubbles rising to the surface.
To a better next week.
Cheers,
~FDA