Where We Are This Week
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Donald Trump evades getting shot again, and Hezbollah receives an urgent message!
Wizard of the Federal Oz
‘And all the federales say, they could have had 2% any day,’ aren’t exactly the words Townes Van Zandt sang about Poncho and Lefty, but it’s kind of the sentiment we’re getting from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, we got word from the Feds that the interest rate would decrease by .5%, which is the first time since 2020 that the rate has been cut.
Normally, the changes in interest rates are more modest — .25% or so — but a .5% decrease signals that Powell and his cohort are feeling pretty bullish in their fight against inflation.
In his speech from Jackson Hole one month ago — which is the stupidest place to wax poetic about the strength of the economy and tell us average folk we’re doing great — Powell was extremely confident that annual inflation would return to 2% — the Federal Reserve’s target rate — within the next few months.
I don’t know about you all, but I don’t mind being stolen from as long as it’s only 2% at a time.
Let us first discuss the timing of the rate cut and its proximity to the presidential election. Awfully convenient, no?
Our economic correspondent (me) had this to say in July of last year.
As noted by a close friend of mine over coffee and bagels last weekend, we can go ahead and rejoice that the economy will be vastly improving all the way until next November. One of the advantages of a fiat, federally-controlled currency is how easily manipulatable it is. Technically, the Federal Reserve and the executive office are two, independent entities that could never collaborate so what I’m hypothesizing here is pure conjecture. Wink wink.
That said, watch how interest rate hikes will cease while the rates themselves might actually improve over the next year and a half. People say the economy is their number one issue? Well, give ‘em what they want!
On the other hand, the New York Times and Paul Krugman — an ‘expert’ economist big dummy who has claimed we’ve beaten inflation thirty different times over the last three years — claim that the giant rate slash has nothing to do with politics.
Who are you going to believe? Them or your lying eyes?
Any Federal Reserve chair’s goal is to find a neutral interest rate — that is, one that neither drives inflation nor slows growth. The problem is that the ‘neutral rate’ cannot be calculated or observed in real-time. It’s a little like trying to find your way through a booby-trapped maze with your eyes closed — over and over and over.
Powell and his predecessors have a virtually impossible job. How does a small team of modestly intelligent (some are modestly dumb, no doubt) individuals take into account every facet of a 350-million-person economy and then make accurate predictions based upon available data?
For a moment, let’s just pretend they are capable of doing just that task. If they were, they’d be putting Nancy Pelosi’s savant-like trading to shame.
Fortunately for the government, since our dollar means basically nothing at this point, they’ve got a variety of tools at their disposal. Inflation is too high, you say? A little illegal immigration here, a rate hike there, a few extra dollars here to keep things moving, and just a few more taxes to balance things out.
At the end of the day, we might reach stasis but our dollar will be worth significantly less than it was before 2020. Whoops!
Bitcoin might be the future. Gold is forever.
Swing and a miss
Think of the state of the country we’re in that Donald Trump, the former President of the United States and current Republican Nominee, has a second attempt on his life and it’s not leading the line.
Remember when it happened the first time? It was so new! So fresh! So novel!
Ugh, remember when it happened the second time? So blasé. So trite. So last month!
Remember when we were all going to tone down our rhetoric? Wasn’t that a fun one-day trial?
Will Donald Trump be the first president to win a hat-trick of assassination attempts? Riveting stuff and we’re not even in the second half.
Of course, Trump is going to brag about all of his assassination attempts. Unfortunately for him, Gerald Ford had two unsuccessful ones as well, so he’s not the record holder.
It’s only a matter of time until we get the Trump speech we deserve, where he tells us he’s taking his talents to the White House. ‘Not one assassination attempt, not two, not three!’ Really, with the joint incompetence of his Security Service detail and American marksmanship, the sky is the limit.
After Biden relieved himself, both literally and figuratively, of his candidacy live on the debate stage, the media went through a purple patch of truth-telling. In the immediate aftermath of the first attempt on Trump’s life, there was a similar miniature renaissance of reformed rhetoric and tasteful criticism.
Apparently, that’s a courtesy that can only be afforded once. Trump was immediately blamed for his own would-be-murdering for not turning down his rhetoric. Okay.
Oddly, ‘gun control’ aren’t the first words out of the Left’s mouths when a couple of crazies are taking potshots at the former POTUS.
Here’s where we get to the real head-scratching hypocrisy of political rhetoric. On Sunday, after the attempted shooting, Vice President Kamala Harris issued a statement expressing her deep gratitude to hear that Donald Trump was safe. Additionally, in no uncertain terms, she condemned political violence.
But…
If you have called your political opponent a ‘threat to democracy’ as much as she has, you surely wouldn’t be stoked that he survived, right? No advocate for democracy was wiping their brow in relief when Operation Valkyrie failed to blow Hitler to bits. ‘We’ve got to vote him out! It’s got to be free and fair!’
I’m not saying Trump is Hitler!
But…
If he was, how idiotic would it be to celebrate his safety?
I know it’s all a game, I just can’t figure out which side of the lines the game is being played on anymore. Previously, I would have told you that it was the ‘threat to democracy’ stuff that was disingenuous and was only used as a scaremongering tactic to drive you to the polls.
But after the increase in political violence in this country since 2020, I’m beginning to think that the polite discourse, the one where you’re grateful nothing terrible has happened to your opponent, is the act; that the real game is being played with fists, guns, and bullets.
That game sounds way less fun.
Drug dealers, doctors, and…Hezbollah agents?
How do you defeat a terrorist organization that embeds itself in a civilian population? Moreover, how do you defeat a group of people who wish for your death but welcome their own?
Israel’s latest answer to that question is exploding pagers. Exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.
This week, Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon received deadly spam calls. In a clever operation that screams, ‘Mossad did it,’ thousands of devices used exclusively by the Iranian-backed terror group exploded in the hands and pockets of their users.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, but in a winking, playful sort of way.
Under the direction of Iran, Hezbollah has been launching hundreds, if not thousands, of missiles into Northern Israel every day since October 7th in solidarity with Hamas. At least one hundred thousand Israelis have been displaced from their homes since the barrage began.
For the third week in a row, we’re playing the same game. It’s comical how dedicated certain news organizations are to obfuscating the truth. Headline after headline read something like this, “Thousands injured in Lebanon,” or “Eight dead in pager attack in Lebanon.” Do they not know how to spell Hezbollah?
With the Middle East already on tenterhooks, no doubt, Israel will be blamed for escalating the violence between the two entities. When you’re encountered with that narrative, allow me to provide a little additional context:
The aforementioned daily missile barrage from Southern Lebanon
The bombing that killed 10 Druze children in Northern Israel
Hezbollah is in violation of UN Resolution 1701
The third line item there is really just to illustrate how worthless of an organization the UN is. For years, Hezbollah has stationed its forces well below the Litani River (contrary to what the resolution dictates), and the UN has done nothing to prevent the repeated, often deadly, infractions.
Given the organization’s weakness in regard to Hezbollah and its outright support for Hamas through UNWRA in Gaza, it’s safe to say we can probably quit treating it as a serious institution.
The United States has been quiet on the pager attacks, though I’m sure Blinken, Biden, or Harris will utter some nonsensical platitude about Israel’s right to defend itself, however, it has to be careful to avoid escalation which is a little like saying, ‘we don’t mind you hitting back, just be careful you don’t actually win! Lol.’
In a softball interview this week, Harris reiterated her position that Israel must do more to defend itself with less collateral damage while she championed the virtues of a two-state solution — which, increasingly, no one in the region believes is possible. Glad to see she’s really got her finger on the pulse.
Notably, unsurprisingly, her comments at the National Association of Black Journalists (which is a thing that exists) did not include reference to Hersh Goldberg-Polin, the American hostage taken by Hamas who was recently found executed, or to the remaining 7 Americans being held in captivity in Gaza.
While Harris and many others might see this week’s events as an opportunity to admonish Israel for taking action, I see it as a sharp contrast between the ethos of our two nations. One has the courage, ingenuity, and determination to retaliate against its aggressors while the other stands idly by.
Seven Americans remain imprisoned by terrorists and not one pager has been blown up by the CIA, not one tunnel has been stormed by the SEALS, and not once have we staged a fake film to rescue them. We once were that nation, but no longer.
To a better next week,
Cheers,
~FDA