Where We Are This Week 07/21/2023
The biggest problems facing America, wheat in Ukraine, the 2024 election and self-doubt.
How do you know you’re not wrong? How often do you interrogate your own beliefs? We should constantly be asking ourselves these questions either by personal reflection or by conversing with others.
One is like practicing arithmetic at home - the better you get, the truer your answers become and the other is like testing out a new airplane to see if it flies. What’s important in both cases is that you a) have the correct orientation, that you’re not seeking to confirm your own bias, and b) that you’re adhering to a consistent set of principles.
The first is vital because it ensures you value truth over yourself, and the second is necessary because if you commit yourself to it, you’ll arrive at an un-compromised position. And c), show your work.
It’s not enough to come to the correct conclusion, how you got there is equally important - because that’s what allows you to get there again. If you and I had plans to play tennis, we’d have to meet at a court. You might research where courts are in the area, follow the directions and arrive at the correct location. If, I, on the other hand, chose to drive around until I saw something green, flat, and with a net, would I make it to the same place? Maybe, but what are the odds I could replicate that?
I’m not saying every decision must be supported by reasoning or logic, some opinions can be cultivated on a moral basis - but it’s crucial you know whether you're morally justifying something as opposed to a logic-based argument. Jonathan Haidt’s The Righteous Mind made me much more comfortable pairing my moral leanings with reasoned opinions - though I’m not entirely sure that was his objective.
Following these basic guidelines is what allows us to express and hold beliefs and opinions that are contrary to the whims of the zeitgeist with conviction and confidence. And now, as ever, it is essential there are individuals that are capable of doing so.
I’ve mentioned the work of to friends several times in the past couple of weeks so I ought to highlight it here. Peter is one of the better thinkers of our time, and his videos - and lines of questioning - pry at the foundations for what we think are deeply held beliefs and why we have them. It’s like philosophical reverse-engineering. Check out his YouTube channel here.
Additionally, a recent example of someone remaining stalwart in their well-founded, deeply held beliefs is J.K. Rowling. I strongly recommend listening to the Free Press’s podcast series, The Witch Trials of J.K. Rowling.
Political Priorities
So, I learned something this week that troubled me. It may surprise you to know that my top concerns aren’t exactly in line with the average American. Can you believe it?
Alright, I’m not entirely shocked by this news, but I was slightly stunned to discover the disparate priorities I share with my countrymen and women. Countryfolx?
I’m a firm believer that the limited options of political parties available to Americans and their narrow sets of policy positions forces the average American to become a single-issue voter provided they’re not just a blind single-party supporter. Fewer Americans than ever, 50%, are identifying as a member of one political party or another, leaving the other half of the country perusing the aisles of the supermarket, seeing which items they can afford.
Because those pesky D’s and R’s still have great enough numbers - and institutional strength - to form powerful voting blocs, party platforms are crafted with those constituents in mind. As I’ve noted before, it ought to be possible for an American to be pro-choice and pro-gun - or vice versa - and vote accordingly.
But, alas, we’re presented with the false binary of left and right. Which do you like more? Corporations and big government? Or corporations and big government? Tough choices all around.
I asked my dad what issues he’d be prioritizing this upcoming election season and, in response, sent me two pages of notes detailing policy positions and reforms his ideal candidate would support. He said that whichever candidate checks most of those boxes will get his vote. There are three things this exchange really highlighted to me. 1. He, too, isn’t defined by the GOP/Dem dichotomy, and 2. ( while this is no slight against him ) I imagine none of his boxes will be checked by the eventual choice of candidates. 3. My dad must not be the average American either.
So, what is the average American most concerned with regarding the upcoming election? Thanks to a recent Gallup poll, we’ve got a fairly good idea. The economy ranks far and away the most important issue to Americans.
32% of respondents mentioned economic issues as the most important problem facing the country while the remaining 68% was predominantly split among issues like ‘the government/poor leadership’, ‘immigration’, and ‘unifying the country.’ Yes, sure, and I think that ship has sailed.
All valid concerns, surely. But here’s where I differ from the polling population - a whopping 0% cited foreign policy as a top concern. Foreign policy - which presumably includes the current nuclear stand-off in which we’re enthralled. I’m not talking about the type of foreign policy that involves whatever is going on in Kosovo - race riots - or Sierra Leone - sham elections presided over by the UN- no, those are relevant concerns but they’re not quite as pressing as the threat of nuclear war.
All of those issues are important - or at least, fascinating - to me, but there’s a clear distinction between some of those events and the saber-rattling between the United States and Russia. And the future, inevitable saber-rattling between the US and China.
Is there a chance I’m being overly cautious? Am I longing for the days of the Cold War that ended before I was born? I’m not clamoring for the next generation to have active shooter drills and nuclear fallout simulations, but it’s a valid concern that things might be headed that way if tensions in Europe continue at pace. So, where are the rest of my zero percenters?
I’m not downplaying the concerns about our economy - although I don’t think any of the specific problems mentioned in the polling indicate the causes of our current economic strife, only the effects. But in a hierarchy of threats, the one with the giant red button takes the cake. If we don’t remove the nuclear elephant from the room then our economic concerns - and everything else - are effectively moot.
It’s not that I don’t share my fellow Americans’ concerns about incompetence in DC, or a flagging economy, it’s just that without addressing this one issue first, we may not have the chance to deal with anything else.
Am I crazy?
The Rapidly Approaching 2024 Elections
Policy positions of institutional politicians are carefully curated and workshopped until they fit the desired bill, this isn’t news. Campaigns (and presidencies) are revolving doors of polling adaptations and focus-group testing. What works, what plays, what controversial topics to stay away from.
No matter how you feel about the issue of abortion, this is how you get Florida Governor and presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis signing his 6-week abortion bill at 10:45 PM on a Thursday night behind closed doors in his office a few months ago. Does DeSantis truly believe in the virtue of that piece of legislation? Maybe, I have no idea. Did his public relations staff absolutely know how controversial and potentially unpopular the new law would be? Obviously.
What the electorate generally finds acceptable or desirable will find its way into the mouths of one candidate or another. While the GOP primary race continues to accelerate, this is no more evident than in the messaging from the Biden camp.
Bidenomics, baby! Printing reckless amounts of money for misguided, bloated social programs never sounded better!
As noted by a close friend of mine over coffee and bagels last weekend, we can go ahead and rejoice that the economy will be vastly improving all the way until next November. One of the advantages of a fiat, federally-controlled currency is how easily manipulatable it is. Technically, the Federal Reserve and the executive office are two, independent entities that could never collaborate so what I’m hypothesizing here is pure conjecture. Wink wink.
That said, watch how interest rate hikes will cease while the rates themselves might actually improve over the next year and a half. People say the economy is their number one issue? Well, give ‘em what they want!
Couple that with the reports of decreased inflation and boom - what recession? The latest reports show that core inflation is hovering just under 5% at 4.8%. Assuredly, it’s an improvement from the high rates we saw the last couple of years, but to contextualize it, the federal reserve is aiming for 2% inflation every year. So, by that metric, we’re still failing - by a lot.
My favorite part is all the happy talk surrounding the new, decreased numbers. The only problem is that core inflation intentionally does not include fuel or food prices in its calculations. So, you can be excused if you haven’t noticed the break you’ve been getting at the grocery thanks to the president and his legislation. It’s frustrating that in the inflation numbers bandied about, they specifically don’t include the types of goods that will most affect the wallets of the poor and middle class.
What a way to paint a rosy picture, just don’t include the items that are literally necessary for survival - but, you know, that’s what we get for naming broad, unspecific economic problems as the biggest facing our country. Maybe I’m too cynical, but I sense that a few thumbs will find their way atop the scale in the immediate future.
But what does that have to do with the price of wheat in Ukraine?
Meanwhile, as foreign policy isn’t top of mind for the average American, President Biden basically doesn’t have one, and the GOP frontrunners are scrambling to find out which positions poll the most popularly.
Previously, Donald Trump stated that he’d resolve the conflict and end the war in 24 hours. Did someone call Jack Bauer? I’d previously given credit - not publicly of course! - to Trump for his position on the Ukraine-Russia conflict when he was asked about it at his town hall event with CNN. The former president said he didn’t think of terms in winning and losing regarding the conflict, and just wanted people to stop dying. Reasonable!
He then went on to state that he’d have the war over within a day’s time of assuming office. Less so!
Our embattled former president was scant on the details of how he’d achieve such a feat of diplomacy - that is, until this week. In an interview with Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump detailed exactly what his plan is. First, he reminded his interviewer of his excellent relationship with Putin and Zelenksyy and then appeared to be overcome with nostalgia as he reminisced about his ‘perfect phone call’ with the Ukrainian president.
Once Bartiromo snapped Trump out of his stupor, he continued. The likely GOP nominee’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine was as follows: he’d tell both sides they need to make a deal, and he’d tell Putin that if they were unable to settle, then America would consider transferring even heavier armaments to Ukraine.
So, as it turns out, Trump’s position on peace talks is literally indistinguishable from that of Joe Biden or Lindsey ‘a dead Russian is a good Russian’ Graham.
DeSantis, for his part, has only offered vague opinions on what he’d like to see American involvement in Ukraine look like should he become president - but it’s safe to say, it can’t be that dissimilar to the Donald’s.
To make matters more pressing, in Ukraine, the situation isn’t improving. Russia and Ukraine had previously agreed that the former would allow grain shipments to continue through the Black Sea so as to not cast the global market into upheaval. This week Russia pulled out of that deal, attacked grain storage and infrastructure inside of Ukraine, and announced that from this point forward, any ship - commercial, military, or otherwise - bound for Ukraine would be considered hostile.
Chicago wheat futures, a benchmark for global wheat prices, rose 9% immediately following Russia’s statements - its largest increase since the war began. Now, the United States’ grain supplies won’t be directly affected by this despite being cut off by Europe’s ‘bread basket’, but the developing world certainly will. The US will still have wheat, but I would imagine your loaf of bread at the market will rise in cost - coincidentally, an impact that won’t be measured by core inflation.
The newest developments of the war are just the latest in the trend of escalation and expansion. Ukraine continues to get deadlier weapons from its NATO allies, and Russia continues to expand its war effort - rumor has it they might be preparing for a second draft. At this juncture, it might behoove mentioning that it was U-boats sinking American merchant ships that compelled the United States to enter World War I.
So, things aren’t cooling off overseas, and the best crop of politicians we have to offer doesn’t seem to have the desire nor the diplomatic wit necessary to bring this conflict to a close.
But maybe, they could or would have to - if the American public would only move the needle ever-so-slightly concerning foreign policy. Do I hear 1%?
To a better next week,
Cheers,
~FDA
Thanks for recognizing I’m not the average, be that positive or negative in our political predicament.