The Wagner Rebellion

And the coup that never was.

If you didn’t manage to keep an eye on the events inside Russia over the weekend, don’t worry. We’ve got you covered. Below is a quick synopsis of the turmoil and what it might mean for the war moving forward.

Cheers,

~FDA

And after a few moments’ time, all is quiet on the Ukrainian front. Okay, the original engagement is still going on unabated but it appears, for now, the threat of a Russian Civil War has been avoided.

In a span of 24 hours, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, ostensibly attempted to stage a militarized coup against the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. On Friday, Prigozhin collected his troops from the Ukrainian frontlines and marched back into the Russian interior. Seemingly overnight, and without resistance, he captured the port city and military hub of Rostov-on-Don.

From there, Prigozhin led his battalion toward the capital. As the Wagner Group was marching through federal highways, reports that Vladimir Putin and other political elites had fled Moscow were surfacing. With Putin fleeing to Saint Petersburg, it looked like Moscow would be the next city to fall to the band of ex-convicts and mercenaries.

Prigozhin and his men never would make it all the way into Moscow, however; sometime late in the day on Saturday, the convoy of vehicles and infantry halted on the highway. Then, almost as quickly as the assault began, they turned back to return to their positions inside of the Ukraine border.

Apparently, Prigozhin and the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, had been negotiating throughout the day’s march, and a deal had been struck. The assault would cease immediately, the majority of the thousands of troops under his command would be signed over to the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Prigozhin would escape prosecution and be exiled to Belarus.

And just like that, the Wagner rebellion was quashed, and Putin once again consolidated his power over the Russian Federation.

Or was it ever actually in question? Was there even a coup attempt at all?

We are truly in the thick of the fog of war. Think back to the early days of the Ukraine-Russia conflict where the battles were being fought not just along the border but on the internet as well. We’re there again.

Supporters of Ukraine were cheerleading for the possible regime change during Prigozhin’s march and were relishing that Putin may finally have met his Waterloo. Is it possible anti-Putin interests had overstated the strength or severity of the opposition the Wagner Group posed?

Meanwhile, skeptics and pro-Russia pundits alike maintained that the supposed ‘coup’ was either a mastermind effort by Putin to reorganize the chain of command in the military or a failed plot by the CIA to destabilize the region. We’re likely to know more as the days go on but it’s doubtful we’ll ascertain anything close to the truth in the war has ended.

It’s almost inconceivable the ease with which Prigozhin marched his men through the Russian interior, claiming the city of Rostov-on-Don and reaching an hour outside of Moscow without spilling a drop of blood of his own men.

Now, reports have come out that Putin was aware of the plot days in advance and if that were the case, wouldn’t you expect more of an obstacle or resistance to have manifested?

Contradicting reports state that Putin actually had never left the Kremlin during the entire episode; which would suggest he knew something that the Western media didn’t or that his hegemony was never in doubt. Sure, an authoritarian like himself wouldn’t be likely to admit he absconded when the going got tough, but each claim at this point must be regarded as potentially true.

Putin then offered extremely conciliatory terms to the man who has been overtly critical of the strategy and operation of the war effort, who shot down Russian helicopters during his ‘march of justice’, and, if the reports are to be believed, led an actual military coup against the President. It doesn’t sound typical of the character of a man who routinely imprisons - or poisons - his political opponents in peacetime.

It’s rumored, now, that after this tumultuous 48 hours, Prigozhin and whatever is left of the Wagner Group is stationed in Belarus - only about 100 km from Kyiv, Ukraine. If this were all a ploy to relocate troops while Ukrainian forces are focused elsewhere on the counteroffensive, then Putin is far more clever than his detractors give him credit. And while this is extraordinarily unlikely, so are the events of the entire weekend and they way the unfolded.

Which facts are facts and which are fiction? How many have to be true for it to be believable this was, in fact, a coup attempt? Anyone who tells you that the events of the weekend make total sense is either lying, convincing themselves of their preferred narrative, or obfuscating their own ignorance.

So, why should we care?

If, in reality, this was a legitimate attempt to overthrow President Putin, then I would estimate that the nuclear threat has risen dramatically. If the seeds of doubt have been sowed within the military hierarchy that the current regime doesn’t have what it takes to put this conflict to bed, then it would be no surprise to see Putin redouble his efforts and become more aggressive.

As a general rule, dictators who feel as if their grip may be slipping do not tend to go gently into the night.

As Americans - or earthlings for that matter - destabilizing a nuclear power in the middle of a prolonged conflict is the last thing for which we should be advocating. In fact, regime change on either side of the border could have enormously deleterious effects in the region.

At the very least, Putin and Zelenksyy are known quantities - whoever might replace them in the interim could easily be more volatile or more dangerous than the incumbents. Prigozhin only had about 25,000 men with him - ousting the current leadership is one thing, but establishing a new rule is another challenge altogether. If the coup had been successful, the situation in both Ukraine and Russia could have deteriorated at an incredibly accelerated rate.

Coup or no, the events of this weekend will likely only lead to an exacerbation of the war. Putin has emerged on top of whatever altercation transpired, and the apparent ease with which he dispatched his opponent - who was growing in notoriety within Russia - will be a welcome boost when it comes to their upcoming presidential elections in 2024. If they even have them, that is.

It bears reminding that Russia is not a Western country and they, despite having some similarities, do not have a Western ethos.

Russia does not possess the same sort of self-hatred and apologetics we’re fond of in Britain or the United States; nationalism isn’t only embraced in the dark corners of the room but by the population writ large. Putin, by all measures, is a popular president, and the dream of the pre-Bolshevik Russian Empire is alive and well in him and the transcontinental nation.

We may never understand the events of this weekend with any certainty; the axiomatic reality of the confrontation is that history is written by the victors, and though the fog of war obscures even the smallest shred of truth, one thing appears to be evident. Putin hasn’t lost yet.